Fellows

The Future of Nuclear Energy

A bipartisan Congressional commission on U.S. nuclear strategy released its report last week, and it deserved more attention than it got. It delivered a candid message that not many want to hear: We’re a long way from a nuclear-free world.

Led by former Defense Secretaries William Perry and James Schlesinger, the commission is blunt on this point: “The conditions that might make possible the global elimination of nuclear weapons are not present today and their creation would require a fundamental transformation of the world political order.” Until then, the report says, the U.S. must have a strong and credible nuclear deterrent.

To do so, the U.S. must maintain its triad of nuclear-delivery systems—bombers, missiles and submarines—a course of action that will require some “difficult investment choices.” It also calls for modernization of the U.S. nuclear stockpile and the “transformation” of the aging physical and intellectual capital of the national nuclear laboratories.

The commission doesn’t directly endorse the now-canceled Reliable Replacement Warhead program—a political hot potato that President Obama rejects and Defense Secretary Robert Gates supports. But it does so indirectly by countering two of the arguments against it—that it might lead to the need for nuclear testing and that it might undermine U.S. credibility on nonproliferation. The commission finds both risks to be minimal.

The commission warns that “we may be close to a tipping point” as more countries seek to go nuclear, in part because they may not have confidence in the reliability of U.S. nuclear weapons or that the U.S. would be willing to use them. It supports a “strengthening” of the international treaty system, including the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, as well as nontreaty efforts such as the Proliferation Security Initiative. It also endorses a strong missile defense—including against more “complex” threats, such as technologies that help incoming missiles penetrate U.S. defenses. It couldn’t reach a consensus on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which Mr. Obama wants the Senate to ratify.

The commission’s recommendations provide a welcome dose of nuclear realism. The Administration and Congress ignore them at the nation’s peril.

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